Bitcoin Under Pressure as Profit-Taking Soars and Futures Market Deleverages Amid Tariff Tensions

Bitcoin in Turmoil amid Trump Tariffs

• The crypto market crashed after Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China, escalating trade wars.

• Bitcoin faced massive pressure from profit takers and sellers, reaching a three-month low of $102k.

• The futures market experienced massive deleveraging as investors pulled capital from futures positions, leading to massive liquidations.

Bitcoin is entering the weekend under heavy profit-taking pressure and a wave of futures deleveraging, as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty weigh on sentiment.

Bitcoin Profit Taking Soars

According to Darkfost, realized profits remain significantly elevated. Thus, the 7-day moving average recently peaked at $2.25 billion, the fourth-highest level of this market cycle. Between October 10th and 11th, realized profits surged to 27.9k BTC, while realized losses spiked to 2,500 BTC, indicating heightened market activity on both sides.

Currently, the weekly average of realized profits remains above $1.6 billion, a substantial amount that underscores how actively investors are locking in gains.

Historically, sustained high levels of realized profits have acted as a headwind for price recoveries. When a large portion of the market continues to sell into strength, it becomes challenging for Bitcoin to establish sustainable upward momentum.

Analysts note that a slowdown in profit-taking would be an early signal of shifting sentiment, potentially paving the way for a more robust recovery phase. For now, however, profit-taking remains intense, keeping bullish momentum contained.

Futures Market Shows Signs of Massive Deleveraging

The spread between Bitcoin futures and spot prices has turned negative, reflecting growing caution among derivatives traders. Meanwhile, open interest has fallen by $11 billion, signaling a significant unwinding of leveraged positions across major exchanges.

Additionally, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index dropped to 13%, and prices are currently trading below the fair value estimate of $113,300, according to market data. This combination of falling open interest, negative futures basis, and reduced flow suggests that speculative leverage has been flushed out of the system, often a precursor to more stable price action but also a sign of near-term fragility.

Macro Tensions Add to Market Volatility

Market jitters intensified following remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who proposed a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods in response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth metals.

The statement triggered a sharp risk-off move across global markets. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $108,000 before partially recovering, and is now trading around $114,000. With markets reacting strongly to geopolitical developments, traders are bracing for a tense weekend, as further volatility could emerge ahead of Monday’s open if macro narratives escalate.

Watching for Sentiment Shifts

For now, elevated realized profits, negative futures spreads, and macro uncertainty are combining to keep Bitcoin in a cautious phase. While derivatives deleveraging may clear the way for a healthier price structure over time, the key short-term signal remains profit-taking behavior.

A measurable slowdown in realized profits could indicate that sellers are becoming exhausted, a setup that has historically preceded stronger recovery phases. Therefore, if recovery follows, BTC will jump back to $115k and eye $118k. Until then, traders and investors are likely to remain on alert for further downside shocks or consolidation.