Silver Smashes $100 as 2026 Rally Turns Frenzied While Gold Hits Fresh Records

• Silver extended its month-long rally, reaching a new all-time high of $100 per ounce on Friday, January 23, 2025.

• Gold, silver, and other safe-haven metals have been on a record rally amid global trade wars and geopolitical tensions.

Silver prices vaulted above $100 an ounce on Friday, marking a stunning milestone for a metal that has long lived in gold’s shadow. The move extends what has already been one of the most dramatic runs in modern market history, driven by a mix of retail enthusiasm, momentum trading, and persistent tightness in physical supply. Spot silver was last up around 5% at roughly $101 per troy ounce, after gaining 147% in 2025 and adding another 40% since the start of 2026.

The surge has unfolded alongside another record-breaking move in gold, which pushed toward $5,000 an ounce. With geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty shaking confidence in U.S. assets, investors have been rotating into precious metals for protection. Analysts say the story is no longer just about inflation hedging or central bank buying, but also about a broader shift in risk sentiment that is sending capital into hard assets.

Silver’s Rally Has Turned Into a Momentum Frenzy

Silver’s rise has become self-reinforcing, with more buyers chasing higher prices simply because the chart keeps moving up. That pattern has created a feedback loop in which strength attracts more speculation, which in turn pushes prices even higher. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell described the current move as a frenzy that is feeding off gold’s strength while also drawing attention because silver remains cheaper per unit, making it psychologically easier for retail investors to participate.

This dynamic is part of why silver is accelerating so quickly. In simple terms, gold may be the headline, but silver is the metal that looks “affordable” to many smaller investors. That lower entry point can create powerful bursts of demand, especially when social media, market narratives, and breakout trading signals align.

Why Analysts Are Warning a Correction Could Be Close

Even with the bullish story, many technical analysts are growing cautious because the speed of silver’s gains has historically been a red flag. When an asset rises too quickly, the market becomes fragile, making a small shift in sentiment trigger sharp profit-taking. O’Connell warned that the market is flashing amber warning signs, suggesting that once weakness appears, it could widen quickly as traders rush for the exit.

Some strategists argue that silver’s current price may be running far ahead of fundamentals. Bank of America strategist Michael Widmer estimates a more justified level for silver is around $60 per ounce. He also notes that demand from solar panel producers may have peaked in 2025, while overall industrial demand could come under pressure as record-high prices prompt manufacturers to seek substitutes or reduce usage.

The Gold-Silver Ratio Shows Silver May Be Stretched

One of the most closely watched signals right now is the gold-silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. As of Friday, that ratio had dropped to about 50 ounces, the lowest in 14 years, and was down sharply from around 105 ounces in April.

This matters because traders often use the ratio as a gauge of relative value. When the ratio falls quickly, it means silver is outperforming gold aggressively. That outperformance can be bullish in the early stages of a cycle, but when it becomes extreme, it can also signal that silver has moved too far, too fast, and may be vulnerable to a pullback.

Retail Buying and ETFs Are Supercharging Demand

A major driver behind the rally has been investment demand, not just industrial consumption. Analysts point to waves of active retail buying through small bars and coins, along with strong inflows into physically backed silver exchange-traded funds. This wave of demand has been building since October and has kept pressure on the market even during brief pauses in price action.

Silver’s 2025 gain was also the biggest yearly growth in LSEG data going back to 1983, highlighting how unusual this move is. In other words, this is not a normal cyclical rise. It is a historic breakout, and markets that move this way often attract both long-term believers and short-term speculators.

Tight Physical Supply and Refining Limits Are Keeping the Market Thin

While investment flows are pushing demand higher, supply conditions have remained tight. About 20% of the annual silver supply comes from recycling, and activity has increased because high prices encourage scrap selling. However, the market has not been able to rebuild inventories quickly enough, partly because of limited high-grade refining capacity. Metals Focus says this refining bottleneck is restricting how fast scrap can return to the market, leaving physical availability constrained.

These supply pressures have become more important after five consecutive years of structural deficit, which is expected to persist in 2026. In a deficit environment, even modest surges in investment demand can create outsized price reactions because there is less spare metal available to meet sudden buying waves.

London and COMEX Inventories Reveal How Liquidity Has Shifted

One of the most telling signs of recent tightness has been the decline in readily available silver in key markets. Metals Focus estimates that London commercial vault stocks fell to a record low of about 136 million ounces by the end of September, driven by deficits, outflows to the U.S., and ETF demand. By the end of 2025, those stocks recovered to nearly 200 million ounces, helping to cool lease rates after an October spike, but inventories remain far below the roughly 360 million ounces seen during the peak of the Reddit-driven silver rally in early 2021.

In the U.S., COMEX inventories also show how quickly metal has moved. After peaking at 532 million ounces in early October, inventories dropped by about 114 million ounces to around 418 million ounces, the lowest level since March. To return to pre-Trump-election levels, COMEX stocks would need further outflows of about 113 million ounces, equivalent to roughly 11% of the annual silver supply. These figures underline how sensitive the market is when large amounts of metal shift between regions.

Geopolitical Risk and Weakening Confidence in U.S. Assets Are Lifting Metals

Silver’s rally is happening at the same time as gold continues to set new records, with spot gold trading near $4,952 after touching fresh highs. Analysts say diminishing confidence in U.S. assets, fueled by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over trade policy, has pushed investors toward precious metals. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda described the current environment as one in which faith in the U.S. and its assets has been shaken, potentially for the long term, driving money into metals.

A softer U.S. dollar has also played a role, making dollar-priced metals cheaper for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in expectations that the Federal Reserve may deliver two quarter-point rate cuts in the second half of 2026, which would further support non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

What Happens Next for Silver After $100

The big question now is whether silver can hold above $100 or whether this move marks a near-term top. Analysts expect liquidity conditions to gradually normalize, especially as the U.S. refrained from imposing tariffs when it released the results of its critical metals review in mid-January. If outflows from U.S. stockpiles accelerate and physical market pressure eases, the market could lose some of the tightness that has helped fuel the rally.

BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist David Wilson believes profit-taking is likely sooner rather than later, especially given the frenzied nature of the investor-driven rally since late November. That warning matters because rallies powered heavily by momentum can reverse quickly when traders decide the upside is exhausted.

For investors, silver’s surge is both a signal of strong demand and a reminder of how volatile the metal can be. The same forces that push silver higher in a rush can also cause sharp corrections once the market senses the move has become too crowded. With the gold-silver ratio stretched and prices far above some fundamental estimates, the next phase may test whether this rally is sustainable or simply the peak of an extraordinary speculative cycle.