Bitcoin Accumulation Phase Mirrors Past Rallies — $160K in Sight?

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin long-term holder supply hit historical levels

• Long-term holders' ratio relative to STH surges, setting the ground for a price rally

A Historic Surge in Long-Term Bitcoin Supply

As Bitcoin holds strong above $100k, it's once again showing signs of deep market conviction. One of the clearest indicators is a historic surge in long-term supply.

"Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Change: This graph illustrates the 30-day sum of net position changes among Bitcoin long-term holders over time, with green bars indicating accumulation and red bars showing distribution, set against a backdrop of Bitcoin's fluctuating price."

Currently, Bitcoin's long-term supply has reached historical levels as per Cryptoquant analyst DarkFost. These are coins that have remained completely untouched for over six months. 

Once a coin crosses that 180-day threshold, it's considered part of the "long-term held" supply, or LTH.

Also read: Bitcoin selling pressure cools down

Currently, the amount of Bitcoin entering this category is surging to record levels, and notably, it's happening while prices remain above $100,000. Thus, investors who bought in the $95K–$107K range are not taking profit, they’re holding. 

Bitcoin Accumulation Before Every Breakout

More important than just the supply numbers is the behavioral pattern of long-term holders. Historically, during each of Bitcoin’s major rallies, long-term holders increased their positions in the weeks leading up to explosive growth.

Graph illustrating the BTC Long/Short-Term Holder Supply Ratio, highlighting price milestones at $28K, $60K, and $100K. The chart tracks BTC price movements alongside changes in short-term (STH) and long-term holder (LTH) supplies from 2022 to 2025.

The first instance happened at around $28,000. As long-term holders began steadily accumulating, their share relative to short-term holders (STH) grew. That shift in balance fueled the rally to $60K.

The second phase unfolded in the $60,000 zone. Even during sideways consolidation, LTH accumulation continued, which ultimately provided the momentum to break toward $100K.

Now, at $100K, the same thing is happening again. We’re seeing a consistent increase in the LTH/STH ratio, a strong indication of another potential accumulation phase in progress.

If history repeats or even rhymes, this accumulation could last another 4 to 8 weeks. And if we follow the same logic as in previous rallies, what comes after is often a powerful upward reversal.

Analysts suggest applying a conservative price multiplier of approximately 1.6 times, based on past breakout patterns. That would place the next price target in the $160,000 range, which is not a stretch, but a historically grounded projection.

Can Long-term Supply Boost BTC to Rally? 

Historically, when long-term holders tighten their grip, they have reliably marked the beginning of major rallies. 

Bitcoin price chart analysis shows recent fluctuations, with a current value of $107,344 and a slight decrease of 0.07%. Trading volume is depicted alongside RSI indicators at 56.17 and 49.24, suggesting market sentiment.

The conviction shown at high prices today is a rare occurrence. It’s happened only six times in BTC’s life, and each time, it preceded big price moves.

Between record levels of unmoved supply and the third clear wave of LTH dominance relative to short-term holders, Bitcoin is flashing a multi-layered signal. 

If history is anything to go by, it's a matter of time before BTC reclaims $112k and makes another all-time high.