Bitcoin Accumulation Surges to New Highs as Liquidity Tightens and Short-Term Holders Capitulate

• Bitcoin accumulating addresses have surged to new highs, acquiring more than 375,000 BTC in 30 days.

• Market liquidity has declined, as the U.S government prolongs, resulting in intense bearish pressure.

• BTC is down 10% over the past 7 days, dropping below $100k to $98k for the first time since June.

Bitcoin suffered a rough week, falling more than 10% and touching lows near $99,000 during the last 24 hours. While market sentiment has cooled and short-term investors have rushed to lock in losses, deeper on-chain data suggests a very different story is unfolding beneath the surface.

Long-term wallets are accumulating at record levels, and mega-whales continue absorbing supply even as risk appetite fades across traditional markets. This structural divergence suggests a market in redistribution rather than broad capitulation.

Bitcoin Long-Term Accumulation Reaches an All-Time High

Addresses categorized as accumulators wallets that have purchased Bitcoin at least twice without ever selling are expanding their holdings at the fastest pace ever recorded. Over the past 30 days, these wallets acquired more than 375,000 BTC, setting a new all-time high for long-term accumulation.

The momentum appears to be accelerating; in less than two months, the monthly average accumulation climbed from roughly 130,000 BTC to 262,000 BTC. Remarkably, more than 50,000 BTC were added in a single day.

This pattern suggests growing conviction among long-horizon investors, even as price pressure weighs on short-term performance. These wallets behave in a manner consistent with long-term holding strategies, adding to their balances during periods of weakness rather than exiting.

The steady expansion of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is likely reinforcing this trend, funneling capital into BTC and encouraging institutional accumulation amid short-term noise.

Mega-Whales Are Quietly Absorbing Supply

The story is similar at the top of the wealth distribution. Mega-whales have purchased deeply into this price weakness. Between November 2 and November 5, mega-whale cohorts acquired approximately 107,000 BTC. Daily totals reached 32,000 BTC on November 2 and remained elevated across consecutive sessions.

Even during periods of declining spot prices, whales stepped in, acting as a stabilizing force as smaller participants sold into volatility. Historically, whale accumulation during drawdowns has preceded broader market recoveries, helping to reduce available supply on exchanges and supporting long-term price trajectories. Their recent activity reinforces the idea that large, sophisticated investors are unfazed by the current macro pressures.

Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Stress

While long-term players accumulate, short-term holders appear to be struggling. The seven-day Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is near 0.99, indicating that temporary participants are selling coins at a loss. This is commonly observed during periods of uncertainty or fear, as newer investors exit to preserve capital.

Loss realization among short-term holders often characterizes late-stage corrections, when weak hands capitulate to price weakness. The selling pressure from these groups helps to transfer supply from transient market participants into the hands of stronger holders, a mechanism that has defined each prior Bitcoin cycle. As these coins move into longer-term addresses, the market becomes more structurally resilient.

Profit-Taking Activity Remains Elevated

In addition to short-term loss-selling, broader market participants are engaging in profit-taking. Exchange netflows recently climbed to $169 million, reflecting an uptick in coins being moved onto exchanges. Historically, heightened netflows correlate with sell-side pressure as holders seek liquidity and prepare to exit positions.

This behavior contrasts sharply with the accumulation seen in long-term cohorts, highlighting the stark divide in market conviction. While long-duration and large-scale investors appear confident in Bitcoin’s longer trajectory, fast-money traders show hesitation, likely influenced by macro-driven liquidity challenges.

Liquidity Conditions Are Tightening

Macro conditions are exerting meaningful pressure on risk assets. The spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Federal Funds Rate has widened to +26 basis points, the highest level since March 2020. The current U.S. government shutdown has curtailed federal spending while tax collection and Treasury issuance proceed uninterrupted. This combination is effectively draining liquidity from the financial system.

Tight liquidity generally weighs on all assets, but particularly on instruments that rely on speculative flows. Bitcoin is not immune. Reduced liquidity, alongside uncertainty surrounding government operations, has tempered risk appetite and contributed to the recent drawdown. Yet, even against this backdrop, large buyers continue to accumulate, suggesting that their focus extends well beyond the near-term macro cycle.

Price Declines but Structure Holds

Despite falling more than 10% over the past week and dropping an additional 2% during the past day, Bitcoin’s internal structure remains surprisingly strong. When prices fall while long-term and whale accumulation accelerate, the market is often transitioning through a redistribution phase. Short-term volatility shakes out weak hands, and long-term investors capitalize by accumulating discounted supply.

This dynamic has underpinned multiple historical rallies. As supply concentrates into fewer hands, it is less likely to sell, the available float diminishes, often setting the stage for sharper price expansion once liquidity returns. With Bitcoin now deep into this accumulation phase, future upward reversals could be sharper than expected if conditions ease.

Road ahead for BTC

Bitcoin’s recent pullback conceals a more constructive narrative. Long-term accumulation is at record highs, mega-whales are actively buying weakness, and short-term holders are offloading coins at a loss, a combination characteristic of pivotal market transitions. Although liquidity pressures and risk aversion continue to influence the broader environment, the steady transfer of supply into committed hands suggests that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains intact.

Short-term pain is driving long-term positioning. When liquidity eventually returns, the groundwork laid during this redistribution phase will likely shape Bitcoin’s next primary impulse.