Bitcoin: 3 Major Reasons Why BTC Could Rally to $130k

• Bitcoin demand has surged with institutions and whales supporting the rally.

• Retail traders are also back in the market, while selling pressure on derivatives drops.

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a notable transformation in buying and selling dynamics, signaling renewed confidence across derivatives, institutional, and retail segments. According to Darkfost, selling pressure from derivatives has declined, and there has been a resurgence of retail activity and persistent institutional buying.

These market conditions have all contributed to a more structurally bullish environment.

Derivatives Market Selling Pressure Eases

One of the most evident signs of changing sentiment is seen in net taker volume, a metric that compares the size of sell and buy orders in derivatives markets. When this metric is profoundly damaging, it indicates that sell orders significantly outweigh buy orders, reflecting strong bearish sentiment among traders.

Earlier this year, the monthly average of net taker volume plunged to around –$400 million, highlighting intense selling pressure. Historically, such extreme readings during bull market phases often mark periods of capitulation, creating attractive entry points for strategic investors. That’s precisely what happened at the end of August.

Today, however, the picture has shifted dramatically. The monthly average net taker volume has recovered to nearly neutral levels, signaling a genuine change in market dynamics. This shift resembles the pattern observed during the April correction, a period after which Bitcoin’s uptrend was strongly reinforced by derivatives activity.

Retail Investors Are Returning

Alongside the derivatives shift, retail investors are becoming increasingly active again, especially on Binance. With Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high, smaller holders are starting to re-engage with the market. Data shows that BTC inflows to Binance from addresses holding less than 1 BTC have spiked sharply, reaching levels not seen in recent months.

Although the total volume moved by this group remains modest, the behavioral shift is significant. It highlights how retail participants typically respond to bullish momentum, in contrast to institutions that accumulate strategically during quieter periods. This renewed retail activity could add short-term volatility but also reinforces positive sentiment as more participants return to the market.

Institutional Confidence Remains Strong

Institutions, professional traders, and whales continue to be a powerful driving force behind Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. This trend is reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Coinbase Pro and Binance.

Throughout this year, especially after the March–April correction, the Coinbase Premium Index has mainly stayed positive, showing sustained buying pressure from institutional players. This is further supported by the 629,500 BTC in total net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating steady accumulation by larger, more strategic investors.

This persistent premium suggests institutions are confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even as retail investors react to price milestones more emotionally.

A Bullish Market with Balanced Forces

The confluence of three key forces easing derivatives selling pressure, renewed retail activity, and substantial institutional accumulation is creating a more resilient market structure for Bitcoin. Derivatives are no longer acting as a drag, retail is injecting short-term energy, and institutions are laying the foundation for sustained upward momentum.

The above three factors set BTC for more gains if they persist. Under the current rate, it will jump back to $123k, retest its ATH of $125k, and set for a rally towards $130k. Therefore, based on these three factors, lower derivatives selling pressure, retail activity, and institutional support, BTC could hit $130k next.

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