Bitcoin Holds Under $100K for Fourth Day as Bears Take Control — Cycle Reset Ahead?

• Bitcoin has dropped 27% from its all-time high of $126k, hitting a low of $92k.

• BTC has traded below $100k for four consecutive days, as bears overwhelm bulls.

Bitcoin Drops 27% From Highs, Threatens 2025 Gains.

Bitcoin has entered one of its sharpest corrections of the year, erasing nearly all of its 2025 gains after falling 27% from its highs and closing below $100,000 for the first time since May. Bitcoin has declined from an all-time high of $126k in October to a recent low of $92k.

The downturn has now extended into a fourth consecutive day under the psychological six-figure threshold, with BTC trading at $95,644 at press time, down 10.17% over the past seven days.

The decisive breach of all moving averages has amplified bearish sentiment across the market. This has left investors worried about the market's future trajectory. Now, traders have to reassess whether the latest decline marks a deeper cycle reset or simply a brutal washout before recovery.

Key Supports Come Into Focus at $92K

Bitcoin’s slide has shifted market attention toward the 92k support region, a level that previously acted as a strong foundation during Q4 last year and into the early months of this year. The previous day, BTC tested this support and rebounded, rising to a local high of $95k.

Although a technical bounce becomes increasingly likely if BTC retests these levels, the broader structure still reflects heavy overhead supply that could limit any upside attempts in the near term. Market liquidity remains thin, and risk appetite has deteriorated, adding pressure even after the U.S. government officially reopened and policy uncertainty begins to clear.

Macro Environment Turns Hostile as Delayed Data Hits Markets

The macro backdrop remains a significant source of volatility. With Washington back online after its extended shutdown, a backlog of economic data is set to flood the market this week. Equities have already shifted into a defensive mode, with major U.S. indexes posting weekly losses and the VIX holding above 20, a signal that investors are increasingly hedging against turbulence.

Thursday’s long-delayed September jobs report now sits at the center of global risk sentiment, especially with October inflation readings and portions of November’s economic data still pending. The sudden release of several months’ worth of indicators is expected to fuel uncertainty, creating conditions in which BTC’s volatility could remain elevated.

Options Market Confirms Caution as Implied Volatility Surges

In the derivatives market, positioning mirrors the defensive mood. Bitcoin’s short-dated implied volatility remains above 50, highlighting expectations of larger-than-normal price swings in the near term. Put-side skew is firmly entrenched, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection and signaling that traders are preparing for further weakness rather than immediate recovery.

The loss of the 50-week moving average has reinforced a medium-term bearish bias, even though the longer-term trend remains technically intact as long as BTC holds the 74.5k region. Until the market convincingly reclaims the 100k level, traders are likely to treat rallies as opportunities to reduce risk rather than signs of a renewed bull leg.

Fragile, Uncertain, and Hinged on Upcoming Data

Bitcoin now sits at a critical juncture. Whether this drawdown represents the start of a deeper cycle reset or simply a final capitulation before a broader recovery depends on how price behaves around the 92k and 88k zones in the days ahead.

A sharp bounce from these supports is plausible, particularly given the cluster of technical confluences. However, the path of least resistance remains tilted lower as long as macro uncertainty persists, liquidity remains thin, and derivatives markets remain heavily bearish.

The coming week, filled with delayed U.S. economic releases, may determine whether BTC stabilizes or whether the next major leg down becomes inevitable.