Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Return to Profit – A Rally to $100k?

Key Insights

• BTC STH from 1 month in profit

• Bitcoin's realized price for one months sits at $88k

Bitcoin Short Term Holders in Profit

After weeks of uncertainty and selling pressure, Bitcoin short-term Bitcoin holders are finally back in profit—and that could be a big deal for the market.

On-chain data shows that investors who’ve held Bitcoin for over a month have now crossed back into profitable territory. This shift follows an extended period where many were nursing an average loss of around 13%. Now, those same holders are sitting on unrealized gains of approximately 9%.

Chart depicting Bitcoin's price fluctuations from July 2024 to April 2025, highlighting short-term holder euphoria risk. The graph shows prices relative to a realized cost basis at intervals of 24 hours, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, with the highest realized price at $95.2K for short-term holders within 24 hours.

That’s more than just a nice recovery. Historically, moments like this—where short-term holders flip from loss to profit—have often marked the early stages of a bullish trend. The change relieves potential sell pressure from these investors, as they’re no longer as likely to cut losses or break even on rebounds. Instead, many may choose to hold in anticipation of further upside.

Realized Price Bands Acting as Resistance

To understand where Bitcoin could head next, it’s important to look at the cost basis ribbon for short-term holders. These realized price bands show what different cohorts paid for their Bitcoin, acting as dynamic support or resistance levels.

Chart showing Bitcoin's realized price and short-term holder realized prices, highlighting support and resistance levels from January 2024 to April 2025.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has successfully broken above several key realized price levels: Overall STH realized price: $92,900, 1 week – 1 month realized price: $86,300 and 1 – 3 months realized price: $88,500.

These levels, which previously served as psychological resistance, are now being reclaimed—an encouraging sign. However, one final hurdle remains: the 3 to 6 month realized price band at $97,300. This is the last significant resistance zone for short-term holders. A confirmed breakout above this level could signal a renewed uptrend and possibly the start of Bitcoin's next leg up.

What This Means for the Market

The broader takeaway is that the mood among short-term holders is changing. They're no longer in the red, and that change in sentiment can drive more confident holding behavior or even new entries. If momentum continues to build and Bitcoin pushes past the $97,300 resistance, it could open the doors to higher highs.

At a time when macro uncertainty still looms, on-chain insights like these offer a rare window into how investors are reacting in real time. And right now, the signs are quietly tilting toward optimism.