Prediction Markets Gain Momentum as Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi Lead a New Crypto Trend

• Polymarket leads the prediction market sector in total value locked, accounting for $248 million of the sector-wide $337 million.

• Opinion leads with 1.5 billion dollars in trading volume. Kalshi follows with 1.2 billion. Polymarket holds 952 million.

Prediction Markets Surge in 2025 as Polymarket Opinion and Kalshi Battle for Dominance

Prediction markets are becoming a noticeable part of the crypto ecosystem. Their structure is simple. Users place bets directly from their crypto wallets and earn a profit if their prediction is correct. Market corrections do not affect this model because outcomes depend only on whether an event occurs.

Betting and profit-seeking based on prediction have existed for centuries. Sports betting is the best-known example. The new development is that many real-world concepts are now moving into crypto. NFTs attempted to revive interest through plush toys, while collectables such as Pokémon cards are being tokenised. Prediction markets follow the same pattern. They are familiar to users and easy to understand. Crypto adds additional incentives and accessibility.

Some analysts compare prediction markets to early meme coins. The potential growth is significant, although the risk remains high. According to DeFiLlama, the sector holds around $337 million in total value locked, and it is still early. The market could grow into a multi-billion-dollar industry, or it could fade as a temporary trend. For now, user activity is rising, and more participants are placing bets across platforms.

Prediction Markets Aim to Transform Finance

Competition is already intense despite the sector’s early stage. Polymarket remains the best-known platform. It is preparing for the launch of the POLY token and planning an expansion into the United States. It also leads in total value locked with $248 million out of the sector-wide $337 million.

Other key players include Opinion Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless. Kalshi has long been viewed as Polymarket’s main competitor, but the launch of Opinion dramatically changed the landscape. In several activity metrics, both Kalshi and Opinion now surpass Polymarket.

Dune data shows that notional volume across prediction markets began accelerating this autumn shortly after Opinion went live. Before that, Polymarket and Kalshi often alternated in first place. Until late summer 2025, Polymarket had near-complete dominance.

As of November 19, Opinion leads with 1.5 billion dollars in trading volume. Kalshi follows with 1.2 billion. Polymarket holds 952 million. Total sector volume stands at roughly $ 3.7 billion.

Prediction markets fall into two broad categories: sports and non-sports, including politics, finance, and crypto. Polymarket Opinion and Kalshi operate primarily within the non-sports segment. In 2024, Polymarket became the overall leader, even surpassing major sports betting networks such as Azuro.

High Win Rates Raise Questions About Insider Knowledge

One reason for the growing attention this autumn is that users can still profit in prediction markets even during a falling crypto market. Most bets are made using stablecoins. Outcomes depend only on the correctness of the prediction, not on broader market movements.

While crypto traders watch prices fall, some prediction market participants continue to earn. The question is whether these users are highly skilled or whether they have access to insider information.

On Polymarket, a user known as 033033033 has been active since November 2024 and shows an almost flawless win rate with around 84,000 dollars in profit.

Another example is a participant associated with MetaDAO who earned roughly 560,000 dollars on Polymarket. They were mainly inactive for a year, then opened several positions one day before Solomon’s public sale ended. All bets went in the same direction, with entry prices only a few cents.

About 30,000 dollars turned into more than half a million. On-chain activity shows the same wallet placed a small, intentionally losing bet in November 2024, possibly to avoid drawing attention. These patterns fuel speculation about insider advantages.

How Traders Use Polymarket Opinion and Kalshi

The first strategy focuses on specific events such as the Solomon case. Users monitor large wallets and accounts they believe have insider information. They mirror these positions, hoping to benefit from early signals.

The second strategy is more straightforward and based on personal conviction. Traders participate in markets related to Bitcoin price levels, Federal Reserve decisions, and other well-known events.

Point systems also influence behaviour. Several platforms introduced activity rewards, which create extra motivation for users who expect future token distributions. The confirmed Polymarket airdrop has drawn more attention and drawn even more traders into the sector.

Risks and Liquidity Challenges Remain

The most significant structural limitation of prediction markets is the small size of individual markets. Low liquidity can lead to slippage and sudden gaps in the order book, especially for large bets.

Another risk is participant behaviour. Some wallets believed to be insiders may place prominent contradictory positions or use multiple wallets. This can mislead others who follow wallet activity as a strategy.

Prediction markets are becoming a new crypto narrative with rapid growth and rising activity. Whether they evolve into a significant financial segment or remain a volatile niche will depend on liquidity, rewards, regulation, and the ability to manage insider risks. For now, the sector is expanding quickly, and platforms like Polymarket Opinion and Kalshi are shaping its direction.