Bitcoin Unrealized Profit Dips — Still Far From Market Top

Key Insights

• Bitcoin's unrealized profit for long-term holders dips compared to the previous

• Long-term holders are still enjoying significant profit

Bitcoin continues to hold strongly above $100k. As of this writing, BTC was trading at $106k.

Despite the king crypto holding above $100k, long-term holders' Unrealized Profit is declining.

Bitcoin Unrealized Profit for Long Holders Dip

According to Cryptoquant's analyst DarkFost, Unrealized Profits for Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) are quietly declining. The continued decline offers a fresh signal that the market may still have room to run before peaking.

According to Cryptoquant data, the average unrealized profit among LTHs currently sits at 220%. This is a drop from the 300%+ levels seen during the March and December 2024 market tops.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Analysis: This chart illustrates the realized profit and loss for long-term Bitcoin holders from January 2023 to July 2025, highlighting fluctuations in BTC price against high and low profit margins.

 While a 220% paper gain may still seem hefty, history tells us this is relatively modest for Bitcoin's mature bull phases.

Where the Market Stands  

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key indicator for measuring investor profit levels, shows that current profitability is far from overheated territory. In past cycles, Bitcoin price tops have aligned with LTH unrealized profits nearing 350%. Therefore, the current level signals more potential upside before euphoria peaks.

Read also: MicroStrategy holds 3% of the total Bitcoin supply

What's more telling is the realized price for long-term holders, which now stands at $39,000. That puts today's average LTH still firmly in profit, though that cushion is thinning as Bitcoin consolidates around the $100,000 mark.

$140,000: The Profit-Taking Threshold?

If past cycles are any guide, Bitcoin would need to rally to around $140,000 to return LTH unrealized profits to the levels historically associated with market tops. That doesn't guarantee BTC will reach those heights, but it does suggest the current rally isn't showing the classic signs of an overheated exit zone just yet.

Despite the drop in unrealized profits, LTHs are still sitting on significant gains, and history favors those who hold through volatility. With profitability metrics not yet in red-alert territory and investor behavior still leaning toward holding rather than selling, the market seems to be in a consolidation phase rather than at a top.

For now, the data continues to back the thesis that this cycle's peak may still be forming, and that long-term conviction is still paying off.